Term Project

 Dead Sea Basin Water Levels Over Time

Introduction  

    The Dead Sea is an integral part of the Middle Eastern geographic region. Located on the border of Jordan and Israel, it is a unique example of international cooperation in development and resource usage. Because the Sea is primarily fed by the Jordan River, the diversion of its water for human use has resulted in the drastic decline of Dead Sea water levels over the past 50 years. This project explores the declining water levels of the Dead Sea, and how human development, especially modern development, has contributed to these levels. 

    The history of the Dead Sea Region is remarkably extensive, and the region remains one of the most historically significant pieces of history on Earth. Though the history of the Dead Sea Region can be traced thousands of years, I will be focusing on modern development and use of the region within the past 50 years. I will be focusing on this period of time due to the limited concrete data regarding sea levels and other quantitative data of the basin before the 1970s. There have been several political controversies and examples of attempted international cooperation over these years, and the ideas presented to keep the Dead Sea from drying out completely continue to change. In addition, the location of the Sea on the border between Israel and Jordan creates difficulty in cooperation due to the persistent tensions in the Middle East (R. Bookman 2020). 

    The Dead Sea water levels have been greatly impacted by human use over the past 50 years, specifically due to diversion of the Jordan River, depletion of water for irrigation, and general usages within the scope of modern development. The recent efforts of sustainability over the past few years show a hopeful future of international cooperation in the pursuit of replenishing water levels, but much more needs to be done to achieve these goals. 

Israel: Demographics

Human Development Index

    According to UNDP, the Human Development Index of Israel is 0.919 (Human Development Report 2020, 3). The figure below shows the HDI of Israel since 1990, which shows the overall increase from 0.801. One of the most substantial factors leading to the increased HDI over this timeline is that of the Gross National Income. During the period of 1990 to 2019, Israel's GNI per capita increased by 69.8% (HDR 2020, 2). This increase in GNI is a strong indicator of an increase in standard of living associated with several development indicators (see below).

Source: UNDP

   

 As discussed in Exercise 1, standard goals of development include: 

• improvement of healthcare
• improvement of education
• overall quality of life
• infrastructure
• cheap and accessible essential goods, such as gas and food
• security
• housing
• self-worth

Because these indicators of development are are unique to each country in which they are measured, it is a unique look at the improvement of Israel's development over time. The most influential indicator to this term project is the development of infrastructure over time, as well as the concept of cheap and accessible essential goods, specifically through the lens of food and water. 

Population Composition

    The population of Israel is extremely unique as opposed to the rest of the world, primarily within the scope of the Middle East. According to the OECD, 21.2% of the population of Israel in 2019 was foreign-born immigrants (OECD). This is an extremely high percentage of immigrants, especially for a nation this small in size. 

Figure 2: Foreign-born population percentage, by country

Source: OECD

    The figure above shows the foreign-born population percentages of several countries. Interestingly, Israel ranks as having the 5th highest percentage of foreign-born population out of the given statistics (OECD). The United States has a foreign-born population percentage of 13.6, which is very low compared to Israel and similar countries such as Canada. 

Mapping the Dead Sea

Figure 3: Polygons showing Dead Sea shorelines over time, 1984-2020

    Using the Google Earth Satellite, I have created polygons depicting the shoreline of the Dead Sea on 5 dates within the Google Earth Satellite's history. Unfortunately, the data provided by Google does not have anything for the region before 1984. Through these polygons, it is evident that the surface area of the Dead Sea continuously declines over the series of years. This decline in surface area (square miles) can be attributed to the declining water levels of the Dead Sea.

Figure 4: Line graph showing declining total surface area of the Dead Sea over time. 2020 is the last year of data available on Google Earth.

    Though the declining surface area of the Dead Sea is not a direct indication of declining water levels due to anthropogenic effects, it has been noted that "In the past half century, the Dead Sea’s surface area has shrunk by one third. It is nearly a hundred feet lower than it was a century ago, first because of climatic conditions, then diversion, and is dropping around three feet per year" (Kreiger 229). These finding are strong indicators of the link between declining surface area and declining water levels. As the water levels decline, the surface area will gradually decline in response. The discussion on the causes of this phenomenon are discussed below.

Figure 5: Graph (source: Israel Water Authority) detailing water level of Dead Sea (y-axis) vs. the date of record (x-axis) 

    The figure above details the declining water levels of the Dead Sea over a period of 1976 through 2021. These statistics are crucial to understanding the long-term declining rate of water levels in the Dead Sea Basin. Beginning in the 1990s, it is evident that the rate of decline began to significantly increase. This can be directly attributed to the dam between the Galilee and Jordan River being constructed. This dam, an example of modern development, has been shown to greatly decrease the flow of water entering the Dead Sea. 

Human Contribution

Dams and Diversion

    According to the Israel Water Authority, "In recent decades, the level of the Dead Sea has been falling at a rate of about one meter per year, as a result of almost complete prevention of water inflows from the Jordan River... and the Yarmouk... and as a result of anthropogenic operations [of the] Israelis and the Jordanians" (Israel Water Authority). These dams and water diversion projects are a clear indicator of modern development due to the emphasis on using large-scale infrastructure projects to alter the terrain to benefit economic and human-use. 

  

  This modern development is also linked to the concepts prevalent within the Green Revolution due to the technological developments of water diversion and dams that were used to increase agricultural productivity, specifically for agricultural and domestic uses (Bookman). Because much of the geography of the region is desert, the rise in population in the region resulted in increased water dependency . This dependency drove the need for dams and water diversion in order to sustain and increase populations. 

  

  The modern development seen within the region through dams and water diversion is directly linked to the declining Dead Sea Levels seen within the past 50 years. This link of shrinkage of water-limited basins in relation to the anthropogenic effects of human development is not unique to the Dead Sea Basin. 

    According to a journal entry published in Earth's Future, "74–86% of global lake shrinkage within water-limited basins can be explained by expansion of irrigated agriculture, thus relegating climatic factors, to date, to a background process relative to increases in human water consumption" (Wine and Laronne 10). What does this mean? By determining that the lake shrinkage is explained by irrigated agriculture as opposed to climactic factors, the decline in Dead Sea levels (and that of other water-limited basins) is directly linked to modern development and the modernization process seen in the Green Revolution. 

    According to the 2020 ICL Corporate Responsibility Report, the percentage of diverted water used for drinking water was 36% in Israel, 33% in Jordan, and 12% in Syria (ICL). These statistics directly align with the research that determines that the primary cause of the declining sea levels of the Dead Sea  are diversion for industry and human consumption. "The legitimate thirst of Israel, Syria, and the Kingdom of Jordan is the overarching cause of the demise of the Jordan River; the one word that summarizes the damage is diversion" (Krieger 213). 

   

Figure 6: Map marking dams affecting Dead Sea, as well as Dead Sea for reference purposes

Evaporation Ponds

    In addition to the dams significantly decreasing the flow of water into the Dead Sea, evaporation ponds located on the portion of the basin threaten the declining water levels. These evaporation ponds were created due to the booming chemical extraction industry in the region (Kreiger 233). 

    The potash industry is instrumental in the degradation of the Dead Sea water levels, and this phenomenon only seems to be increasing. Both industry and tourism in the region depend on these evaporation ponds; they are easier to maintain than the natural northern basin, and the rate of sinkhole formation is much lower (Associated Press).

    The main way the evaporation pond network has contributed to the declining sea levels is by the presence of the canal which pumps water from the northern basin to the southern evaporation ponds. This process has contributed to the decrease of around 160 cubic meters per year from the northern basin, which is a fixed amount based on the surface area of the evaporation ponds (ICL). This amount is determined by ICL to be the net decrease per year based on the amount extracted from the northern basin, as well as the amount that was sent back to the northern basin after the industrial processes (ICL). 

Figure 7: Arial photos of Dead Sea, 1984-2020

Source: Google Earth

    The figure above shows the evolution of the evaporation ponds directly south of the Dead Sea. In these photos, it is evident that the complexity of the ponds has increased since 1984. 

    

    In its report on their contribution to the Dead Sea water levels, the ICL stated that "An annual decline of about 85 cm in the Dead Sea level will continue even if ICL’s industrial operations in the Southern basin were completely halted, and at the cost of drying up the southern basin where, among other things, the Dead Sea hotels are located" (ICL). It is important to note that ICL is a main mineral extraction corporation on the southern basin of the Dead Sea.

    If the canal from the northern basin and the evaporation ponds were to be halted, the Dead Sea would still be declining in water levels as the years went on, though it would be declining at a lower rate. That being said, the tourism industry now depends on the southern basin as its hospitality hub, as it is the only area that has the least threat of sinkholes (Gounon). If the evaporation pond processes were halted, the water of the basin would dry up and leave the tourism industry with nothing (Salem). 

Long-Term Effects

Sinkholes

     On the western and eastern shores of the Dead Sea, there is an increasing amount of sinkholes appearing as the water levels drop (Salem 1). The locations of these sink holes align with the strike-slip faults of the eastern and western sides of the basin (Salem 4). Because of these characteristics, the areas are more tectonically active, but this tectonic activity is not the primary cause of these sink holes. 

    It has been noted that the sinkholes are primarily caused by the receding water levels: as the water levels of the basin decline, they leave a hard layer of salt beneath the surface of the Earth (Tlozek). When the winter floods bring groundwater flows, the salt located about 20 meters below the surface dissolves and flows away with the freshwater. This dissolving sensation of the salts left behind by decreasing water levels causes the geologic structure beneath the surface to collapse and give way to sinkholes (Tlozek). 

Figure 8: Sinkhole sites along Dead Sea shore (Source: Eppelbaum)

KEY: Sinkhole sites along Dead Sea shore: 1) Zikim; 2) Avenat; 3) N.Qane; 4) Samar; 5) N. Deragot; 6) Mineral Beach; 7) Ein Gedi and Nahal Arugot; 8) Yesha; 9) Mazor; 10) Nahal Hever north; 11) Nahal Hever south; 12) Asa'el; 13) Nahal Zeelim; 14) Rahaf; 15) Lynch Straight; 16) Mor; 17) Ein Boqeq; 18) Newe Zohar; 19) Dam-2; 20) Lisan; 21) Ghor Al-Haditha; 22) Wadi Mejib; 23) Suweimeh; 24) unnamed; (20-24-after Closson and Abu Karaki, 2009). CC'-line of the generalized geological section (the coordinates in the frame are new Israel Mercator grid in km, the outer coordinates are Universal Transverse Mercator grid, in km). 

    Ein Gedi is a former tourism hotspot on the western shore of the Dead Sea Basin (Gounon). Beginning in the 1980s, however, sinkholes quickly started to destroy the resort. It is estimated that overall, there are around 6000 total sinkholes surrounding the Dead Sea as of 2020, with around 500 new ones forming every year (Tlozek). 

    As the water levels of the Dead Sea decrease, the rate of sinkhole formation will only grow. Because there is next to no hope to mitigate these issues, the tourism hotspots are now mainly on the shores of the evaporation pools in the south. 

    These evaporation ponds and the location of the resorts and other tourist hotspots on the southern basin of the Dead Sea provide a unique look at the relationship between nature, industry, tourism, and demographics (ICL). Nowhere else is the interlocking dependence and mutual concern so prevalent than with the Dead Sea, though much of it is due to monetary concerns (Kreiger). 

    Ethics aside, it is very important to these industries and communities to protect the region and mitigate the consequences of the Anthropocene on the Dead Sea and its surrounding geographic region (UNDP). 

    

Dead Sea-Red Sea Water Conveyance

    For many years, the Dead Sea-Red Sea Water Conveyance Project was was the most promising long-term solution to the question of the Dead Sea water levels. Through this project, about 250 million cubic meters of water would be piped to the Dead Sea from the Red Sea per year (Aggestam, Sundell). This project would not have completely solved the issue of declining water levels, but it would have made an impact on the speed at which it will occur (ICL).

    

    This project was set to be a major cooperation of Israel, Jordan, and the Palestinian Authority (Dakkak 2020). This pipeline would have been a monumental cooperation of nations that often find themselves at odds with each other, but unfortunately, Jordan pulled out of the project in 2021 with plans to construct their own desalination plant to provide the kingdom with water (this will not provide Jordan with enough water, and the kingdom will still need to buy water from Israel) (Staff 2021).

Modern Development to Blame?

    Modern development is ultimately to blame for the declining water levels of the Dead Sea. According to course lecture notes, moderns believe in the value of:

• Progress over tradition
• This case study of the Dead Sea shows the prominence of this value due to the emphasis of new technological developments leading to the depletion of Dead Sea water. The most apparent example of this is through the introduction of dams on the major rivers feeding into the Dead Sea. The diversion of these waters resulted in the almost complete reduction of inflow to the Dead Sea Basin (Bookman). Because of this, even more "progress" had to be done, and led to the introduction of canals to be able to restore some semblance of "normalcy" to the southern evaporation pools, to be used for tourism.

• Human initiative over fate
• The effort of the nations of the region to divert water and utilize the Dead Sea Basin for mineral extraction is an example of this priority within modern development. By creating dams, evaporation ponds, and canals, the peoples and governments of the region utilized human initiative to increase the usable water and the profit from it as opposed to keeping the Dead Sea the way it had been for thousands of years (ICL). Though the water available for human consumption would have remained relatively stagnant, at least the entire geographic region wouldn't be in shambles due to environmental degradation caused by "human initiative"

• Divide between society and nature
• There is no better example of the divide between society and nature than there is with the Dead Sea. The tourism boom of the 20th century was a direct view of the divide between society and nature: The resorts and tourism centers on the shores of the Dead Sea were created for human pleasure, and completely disregarded the conservation needs of the Dead Sea itself (Gounon). Eventually, nature began to "fight back" by destroying these once beautiful, economically useful locations with thousands of sinkholes (Tlozek). 

    Though these are not the only qualities linking the situation of the Dead Sea Basin to modern development, it was ultimately technological advances of humans within the late 20th century that caused the emergency seen today. Sometimes, technological innovation is not always a wonderful initiative. 

    Only time will tell what the nations of the region decide to do to mitigate the declining levels in the long run, but time is beginning to run out. Soon, the Dead Sea may just be a cherished memory, destroyed by the very humans that recorded its vast history and beauty for thousands of years.

Works Cited, compiled via Zotero

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Aggestam, Karin, and Anna Sundell. “Depoliticizing Water Conflict: Functional Peacebuilding in the Red Sea–Dead Sea Water Conveyance Project.” Hydrological Sciences Journal, vol. 61, no. 7, May 2016, pp. 1302–12. Taylor and Francis+NEJM, https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2014.999778.

“At First the Sinkholes Swallowed a Beachside Resort. Then They Kept Spreading.” ABC News, 9 June 2021. www.abc.net.au, https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-06-10/the-disappearing-dead-sea-sinkhole-science-en-gedi/100123858.

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